Can we predict the next five years in UK Higher Education? A talk by Andy Harrison (UCAS)
Abstract
UCAS’ medium-term business planning depends on estimating the number of applications to university for the next five years and how confident we can be in those estimates. In order to support business planning, the Analysis and Insights unit is developing a forecasting capability.
In this talk, I will begin by showing how we have developed a forecast of how the number of applicants to HE will change over the next five years, based on the assumption that current trends will continue unchanged. But this forecast only gives us the most likely outcome. How can we model the uncertainties in this forecast and how do they change our view of the immediate future?
To quote George Box, ‘All models are wrong, but some are useful’. In particular, all models are based on assumptions. I will use the impact of Brexit on our forecast of EU numbers to illustrate the impact assumptions have on the predictions a model will make.
I will conclude by asking the question, how can we improve the accuracy of this forecast and reduce the level of uncertainty?
All views expressed are those of the speaker and not UCAS.
No charge is made to attend meetings; non-IMA members are welcome.
