Dr Abby Barlow
Abby is a mathematical and numerical modeller at AWE. She recently completed a PhD in applied mathematics at the University of Bath, focusing on eco epidemiological dynamics in populations with demographic and spatial structure. Her research has resulted in several publications in peer reviewed scientific journals.
Abstract
Infectious diseases spread through patterns of everyday contact, which are shaped by where people live and how they interact. In particular, households play a central role: contacts within the home are typically more frequent and more intense than those in the wider community, making them key drivers of transmission and important targets for control.
In this talk, modelling frameworks that capture disease dynamics at the scale of households and other small residential units are presented. By linking these units through wider population interactions, we move beyond standard “well-mixed” assumptions and obtain more realistic descriptions of transmission. This approach allows us to determine key quantities such as the potential for an outbreak to take off and to assess the impact of interventions targeted at households.
We then extend this perspective to vector-borne diseases, where transmission depends not only on human contact patterns but also on the ecology of vectors. Many important vectors, such as Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and Ixodes scapularis ticks, live and interact with hosts at the scale of individual households or residential patches. Their populations are therefore shaped by local environmental conditions and subject to strong stochastic effects.
Using a combination of analytical methods and stochastic simulation, we develop models that capture these small-scale dynamics and explore how control strategies, applied at the level of households or residential patches, can influence both vector populations and disease risk. This highlights the importance of fine-scale structure in designing effective and targeted intervention strategies.
Additional Information
Doors: 7.00pm for a 7.30pm start.
Tea, coffee, and biscuits will be served.
The lecture is free and open to all. Booking is not required.
The venue can be found on the A340 Basingstoke to Newbury Road, just before the Heath End Roundabout at Tadley.
The correct gate is signposted West Gate or AWE Staff + Deliveries.
What3words: amending.visitors.simulations
