10th November 2010, 6:00pm to 7:00pm
Stochastic Processes for Dengue Disease Mapping, Mrs Nor Azah B. Samat (University of Salford)
Abstract
Relative risk estimation is one of the most important issues in the study of geographical distributions of disease occurrence or disease mapping. Most dengue studies are based on exploratory analysis, which includes the study of covariates and a geographic information system to integrate patient-related information. We introduce an alternative method to estimate the relative risk of dengue occurrence corresponding to stochastic SIR-SI models for dengue disease prevalence in human populations allowing for mosquito transmission of the virus.
Point Process Models for Repairable Systems in Nature and Industry, Mr Stuart A Bell (University of Salford)
Abstract
We can model the failure patterns and maintenance activities of many complex repairable systems conveniently using point processes. These then enable rolling, short-term forecasts that allow us to plan repairs, inspections, preventive maintenance and replacements in a cost-effective manner. A recent point process that has several desirable properties is the decaying multiplicative intensities model and we demonstrate applications of this model for scheduling maintenance activities in nature and industry, including oil pumps and gas turbines.
Venue: Room E34, John Dalton Building, Oxford Road, Manchester Metropolitan University
No charge is made to attend meetings and non-members are welcome.
