Uncertainty Quantification for COVID 19 Response, a talk by Professor Veronica Bowman (Dstl Fellow)
Abstract
During the COVID-19 pandemic it has been essential to have an assessment of the state of the epidemic. This is achieved by combining the models and expertise of a wide range of academic subject matter experts into one integrated output. The modelling support team within Dstl has developed and deployed a methodology that produces statistically rigorous, combined projections and prevalence estimates, from the multiple academic projections. These estimates and combinations are used by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza – Modelling (SPI-M) to inform the status of the epidemic. The output informs key decisions for the COVID mitigation strategies on a national scale. This talk examines the methodology we have employed and the communication strategies and visualizations we have used to communicate these to government and the wider public.
About the Speaker
Professor Bowman has over 10 years’ experience in MOD and DoD research and is a published research scientist and statistician. Professor Bowman is the Dstl subject matter expert knowledge management, incorporating uncertainty modelling, source term estimation and sensor placement. She has sat on the international panel for the Chemical, Biological and Radiological (CBR) situational awareness task under the CBR Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), and was responsible for the successful development and delivery of a sensor placement tool to the US Guardian program, and the disease forecast modelling tool, CrystalCast, used extensively throughout the COVID-19 pandemic to support government response. Her research focus is uncertainty propagation and Bayesian Inference. She has a BSc with First Class Honours and a PhD in Statistical Modelling, both from the University of Southampton. She is a Fellow of both the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications and the Royal Statistical Society, and is a Chartered Mathematician.
This talk will be given remotely, via Zoom. If you wish to register for attendance at this North West branch talk, please contact Gemma Reeves before 3.00pm on the day of the talk, who will provide the required details.
No charge is made to attend meetings. Non-IMA members are welcome.
