Date: Monday 28 – Wednesday 30 June 2004
Location: Oxford
In 1997 the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications (IMA) sponsored a conference in Oxford on the modelling of international conflict. This was the second IMA conference concerned with analytical approaches to conflict, and it took place in the aftermath of war in the Balkans and as new methodologies for peace support and reconstruction began to emerge. The first conference had taken place in 1984 when the Cold War appeared to be entering a new and dangerous phase, and when the momentous events surrounding the fall of the ‘iron curtain’ had yet to unfold. So it is very appropriate that in 2004, at a time when many would argue that new thresholds in international conflict have been crossed, a further conference is to be held, again in Oxford, at which participants will be able to examine subsequent (and often interrelated) developments both in world security and in conflict theory.
This next conference is intended as a forum both for those who have to operate directly in arenas of conflict (e.g. the military, staff of NGOs, mediators and counsellors), those whose role is to provide support or advice (e.g. defence analysts and systems contractors) and others who can offer new ways of thinking about and addressing conflict (e.g. peace and conflict researchers). Deliberately, this defines a cross-disciplinary field.
Conference Programme
Monday 28 June 2004 |
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| 0930- 1430 |
Registration | |
| 1000- 1230 |
Tutorial:Confrontation Analysis A Tait (Idea Sciences, USA) |
|
| 1300- 1400 |
Lunch | |
| Role of Analysis | ||
| 1400- 1445 |
Invited speaker: Role for Mathematics in Forecasting Decisions in Real Conflicts? K Green (www.conflictforecasting.com) |
|
| 1445- 1515 |
Confrontational Analysis: Prediction, Interpretation or Diagnosis? (pdf) P Bennett (Department of Health) |
|
| 1515- 1545 |
Analytical Support to Policy Makers in a Messy World S Lea (Dstl) |
|
| 1545- 1615 |
Tea | |
| 1615- 1645 |
Operational Analysis in Support of Recent Military Operations G Rose (Dstl) |
|
| 1645- 1730 |
Invited speaker: Measuring and Assessing International Conflicts and Their Consequences Michael Clarke (University of London) |
|
| 1730- 1800 |
Posters Seminar Room |
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| 1900- | Dinner | |
Tuesday 29 June 2004 |
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| 0900- 0945 |
Invited speaker: A Minimax Procedure for Negotiating Multilateral Treaties Steve J Brams (Co-Authors Marc Kilgour and M Remzi Sanver) |
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Strategic Interaction |
Social choice |
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| Lecture theatre | Seminar Room | |
| 0945- 1015 |
Conflict Resolution and Conflict Prevention H Goldwood and C Goodman |
A poison chalice?: Negotiating with extremists (pdf) D Goodwin (Royal Military Academy) |
| 1015- 1045 |
Estimating Force Requirements for Crisis Repsonse Operations (pdf) R K Huber and S Schafer (Uni. of the Federal Armed Forces) |
Modelling conflict: social choice theory and social welfare theory (pdf) G Burt (Open University) |
| 1045- 1115 |
Coffee | |
Simulation/Experimentation |
Civil Measures |
|
| Lecture Theatre | Seminar Room | |
| 1115- 1145 |
Analysing the Impact of Command Intent upon the Evolution of Operation R Wilson (Dstl) |
Tales of the Unexpected: When Do Economic Sanctions Work? J Hovi and R Huseby (Uni. of Oslo) |
| 1145- 1215 |
Historical Analysis for the Realistic Representation of Time in Combat Simulations (pdf) D Tilley, D Rowland and P Pearce (Dstl) |
Win-win Democratic Structures P Emerson (The de Borda Institute) |
| 1215- 1245 |
Non-instrumental Behavior in an Experimental Public Goods Game L Helland and J Hovi (Norwegian School of Management) |
The Role of the Electoral System in the Resolution of Ethnic Conflict (pdf) D Chapman (Democracy Design Forum) |
| 1300- 1400 |
Lunch | |
| 1400- 1445 |
Invited speaker: International Security After 9/11 P Rogers (Dept of Peace Studies, University of Bradford) |
|
The International Scene |
Analytical Developments |
|
| Lecture Theatre | Seminar Room | |
| 1445- 1515 |
Drama theory as the behavioural rationale in agent-based models (pdf) J W Bryant (Sheffield Hallam University) |
A Case of Confrontation: Insights from MCDA and Conflict Analysis F Losa (Ufficio di statistica) |
| 1515- 1545 |
Contingent, Time-Dependent Conflict Resolution: Drama Theory in the Extensive Form N Howard (dramatec) |
|
| 1545- 1615 |
Tea | |
| 1615- 1645 |
Multivariate Time Series Approaches To Analysing The Northern Irish Conflict: Lessons For Future Sub-State Conflict Control S Wright and D Webb (Leeds Metropolitan University) |
|
| 1645- 1715 |
Historical Analysis for the Realistic Representation of Time in Combat Simulations A Morley (Dstl) |
Optimal Enforcement and Adequate Penalties Marc Kilgour (Wilfrid Laurier Uni) |
| 1715- 1800 |
Invited speaker: Is World Multipolarity a Political Myth? V A Svetlov (Petersburg State Transport University) |
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| 1930- 2000 |
Reception: The Randolph Hotel, Oxford | |
| 2000- | Dinner: The Randolph Hotel, Oxford Sponsored by Dstl. After dinner speaker General Sir Rupert Smith Former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe. Considered the consummate “soldier’s soldier”, he served in Northern Ireland as the General Officer Commanding from 1996-98, during a period that spanned ceasefire, peace negotiations and the Good Friday agreement. He is now actively engaged in the field of conflict research. |
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Wednesday 30 June 2004 |
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Military Networks |
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| 0900-0930 | Quantifying the Benefit of Shared Information (pdf) T S Gardener and J Moffat (Dstl) |
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| 1000-1030 | Analysis of Command and Control in Network Enabled Operations (pdf) G Enemo (Norwegian Defence Research Establishment) |
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| 1030-1100 | Coffee | |
Non-state Actors |
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| 1100-1130 | Kosovo Refugees on the Macedonian Border: Escaping a Prisoners’ Dilemma (Presentation) L Zeager and J H P Williams (East Carolina University) |
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| 1130-1200 | Female Suicide Bombers, The Literary Turn and Chechnya C Moore (Nottingham Trent University) |
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| 1200-1230 | Atmospheric dispersion modelling in support of civil emergency operations (Presentation) R D Kingdon (Dstl) |
|
Shared Understanding |
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| 1230-1300 | Emergent Co-Operation Over Common Pool Relations H Miall (Lancaster University) |
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| 1300-1400 | Lunch | |
| 1400-1430 | Critical Memory Work and Conflict Transformation in Bosnia-Herzegovina R Kelly (University of Bradford) |
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| 1430-1500 | Closing discussion J Bryant (Chair) |
|
Speakers
| Bennett, Peter | Operational Research (EOR) Dept of Health Skipton House 80 London Road London SE1 6LH UK |
| Brams, Steve | New York University USA http://www.nyu.edu/ |
| Bryant, Jim | Sheffield Hallam University & Warwick Business School UK |
| Burt, Gordon | The Mathematical Social Science Programme Institute of Educational Technology Open University UK |
| Chapman, David | Democracy Design Forum Suffolk UK |
| Clarke, Michael | University of London UK |
| Emerson, P J | The de Borda Institute Belfast UK |
| Enemo, Geir | FFI (The Norwegian Defence Research Establishment) Kjeller Norway |
| Gardener, Tim | Dstl Farnborough Hants GU14 0LX UK www.dstl.gov.uk |
| Goodman, C | |
| Goodwin, Deborah | Senior Lecturer Royal Military Academy Sandhurst UK |
| Goldwood, H | |
| Green, Kesten | Victoria University of Wellington New Zealand www.conflictforecasting.com |
| Helland, Leif | Norwegian School of Management (BI) Box 580, 1302 Sandvika, Norway leif.helland@bi.no |
| Hovi, Jon | CICERO and Department of Political Science Box 1097 Blindern, 0317 Oslo, Norway jon.hovi@stv.uio.no |
| Howard, Nigel | dramatec 12 Chesham Road Kemp Town Brighton BN2 1NB UK Nigel.Howard@dramatec.com Tel.: +44 (0) 1273 674586 |
| Huber, R K | Uni. of the Federal Armed Forces |
| Huseby, Robert | Robert Huseby Department of Political Science Box 1097 Blindern, 0317 Oslo, Norway roberthu@stv.uio.no |
| Kelly, R | University of Bradford UK |
| Kilgour, Marc | Wilfrid Laurier Uni, Canada |
| Kingdon, R D | Dstl UK www.dstl.gov.uk |
| Lea, Steve | Dstl UK www.dstl.gov.uk |
| Losa, F | Ufficio di statistica |
| Miall, Hugh | Lancaster University UK |
| Moffat, Jim | Dstl Farnborough Hants GU14 0LX UK www.dstl.gov.uk |
| Moore, C | Nottingham Trent University UK |
| Morley, A | Dstl UK www.dstl.gov.uk |
| Pearce, P | Land Systems Department Dstl Fort Halstead Kent UK www.dstl.gov.uk |
| Rogers, Paul | Dept of Peace Studies University of Bradford UK |
| Rose, George | Group Leader Support to Operations Policy and Capability Department Dstl Farnborough Hants GU14 0LX UK www.dstl.gov.uk |
| Rowland, D | Newman & Spurr Consultancy Camberley Surrey UK |
| Sanver, M Remzi | |
| Schafer, S | Uni. of the Federal Armed Forces |
| Smith, General Sir Rupert | |
| Svetlov, Victor | Petersburg State Transport University St. Petersburg Russia |
| Tait, Andrew | Idea Sciences 205 The Strand Alexandria VA 22314-3319 USA www.ideasciences.com Tel.: +1 (703) 299-3480 |
| Tilley, D | Policy & Capability Studies Department Dstl Farnborough Hants UK www.dstl.gov.uk |
| Webb, Dave | The Praxis Centre Leeds Metropolitan University Leeds UK |
| Williams, John | Department of Political Science East Carolina University Brewster A-120 Greenville, NC 27858 USA williamsjoh@mail.ecu.edu |
| Wilson, R | Dstl UK www.dstl.gov.uk |
| Wright, Steve | The Praxis Centre Leeds Metropolitan University Leeds UK |
| Young, Mike | CORDA UK |
| Zeager, Lester | Department of Economics East Carolina University Brewster A-434 Greenville, NC 27858 USA zeagerl@mail.ecu.edu |
Presentations
A Minimax Procedure for Negotiating Multilateral Treaties
Steve J Brams (Co-Authors Marc Kilgour and M Remzi Sanver)
New York University, USA
Marc Kilgour
Wilfrid Laurier Uni, Canada
M Remzi Sanver
Modelling conflict: social choice theory and social welfare theory
Gordon Burt
The Mathematical Social Science Programme, Institute of Educational Technology, Open University, UK
Analysis of Command and Control (C2) in Network Enabled Operations (NEO)
Geir Enemo
FFI (The Norwegian Defence Research Establishment), Kjeller, Norway
Quantifying the Benefit of Shared Information
Tim Gardener, Jim Moffat
Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, Farnborough, UK
Historical Analysis for the Realistic Representation of Time in Combat Simulations
D Tilley
Policy & Capability Studies Department, Dstl, Farnborough, Hants, UK
D Rowland
Newman & Spurr Consultancy, Camberley, Surrey, UK
P Pearce
Land Systems Department, Dstl, Fort Halstead, Kent, UK
Kosovo Refugees on the Macedonian Border: Escaping a Prisoners’ Dilemma
John H P Williams
Department of Political Science, East Carolina University, Brewster A-120, Greenville, NC 27858, USA
Lester A Zeager
Department of Economics, East Carolina University, Brewster A-434, Greenville, NC 27858, USA
Mike Young
CORDA, UK
Papers
Confrontational Analysis: Prediction, Interpretation or Diagnosis?
Peter Bennett
Operational Research (EOR), Dept of Health, Skipton House, 80 London Road, LONDON SE1 6LH, UK
Drama theory as the behavioural rationale in agent-based models
Jim Bryant
Sheffield Hallam University & Warwick Business School, UK
Estimating force requirements for crisis response
Sebastian Schäfer and Reiner K. Huber
Institute for Applied Systems Science and Operations Research, University of the Federal Armed Forces Munich, Germany
Modelling conflict: social choice theory and social welfare theory
Gordon Burt
The Mathematical Social Science Programme, Institute of Educational Technology, Open University, UK
The Role of the Electoral System in the Resolution of Ethnic Conflict
David Chapman
Democracy Design Forum, Suffolk, UK
P. J. Emerson
The de Borda Institute, Belfast
Analysis of Command and Control (C2) in Network Enabled Operations (NEO)
Geir Enemo
FFI (The Norwegian Defence Research Establishment), Kjeller, Norway
Quantifying the Benefit of Shared Information
Tim Gardener, Jim Moffat
Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, Farnborough, UK
A poison chalice?: Negotiating with extremists
Deborah Goodwin
Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, UK
Non-instrumental Behavior in an Experimental Public Goods Game
Leif Helland
Norwegian School of Management (BI), Box 580, 1302 Sandvika, Norway
Jon Hovi
CICERO and Department of Political Science, Box 1097, Blindern, 0317 Oslo, Norway
Tales of the Unexpected: When Do Economic Sanctions Work?
Jon Hovi
CICERO and Department of Political Science, Box 1097, Blindern, 0317 Oslo, Norway
Robert Huseby
Department of Political Science, Box 1097 Blindern, 0317 Oslo, Norway
Resolving Conflicts in a Tree: Drama Theory in the Extensive Form
Nigel Howard
dramatec, 12 Chesham Road, Kemp Town, Brighton BN2 1NB, UK
Historical Analysis of Conflict Termination (pdf)
Alistair Morley (Policy & Capability Studies Department, Defence Science & Technology Laboratory, Farnborough, Hants, UK)
Operational Analysis in Support of Recent Military Operations
George Rose
Policy and Capability Department, Dstl, Farnborough, Hants GU14 0LX, UK
Is multipolarity a political myth? Towards a formal theory of polarization of the world system
Victor A Svetlov
Petersburg State Transport University, St. Petersburg, Russia
Historical Analysis for the Realistic Representation of Time in Combat Simulations
D Tilley
Policy & Capability Studies Department, Dstl, Farnborough, Hants, UK
D Rowland
Newman & Spurr Consultancy, Camberley, Surrey, UK
P Pearce
Land Systems Department, Dstl, Fort Halstead, Kent, UK
Kosovo Refugees on the Macedonian Border: Escaping a Prisoners’ Dilemma
John H P Williams
Department of Political Science, East Carolina University, Brewster A-120, Greenville, NC 27858, USA
Lester A Zeager
Department of Economics, East Carolina University, Brewster A-434, Greenville, NC 27858, USA
Steve Wright, Dave Webb
The Praxis Centre, Leeds Metropolitan University, Leeds, UK
