Date: Monday 29 March 2010 – Wednesday 31 March 2010
Location: Mary Ward House, London
Aim and Scope
Health and Social Care systems are undergoing major changes worldwide, due in part to changes in demography and in part to increased competition between parts of the system whether they are hospitals, primary care trusts, or general practitioners. Yet running health and social care systems efficiently and effectively is crucial to improving or even maintaining our quality of life. Over the years, extensive research has been conducted to find immediate and long-term solutions to issues that are routinely faced by health and social care management professionals, such as waiting lists and bed capacity, hospital redesign, workforce planning and scheduling, patient flow modelling, performance management, disease monitoring, and health care technology assessment. Simulation and modelling techniques (statistical analysis, stochastic processes, queuing theory, mathematical programming, heuristics, discrete event simulation, system dynamics, etc) have shown to be increasingly valuable in providing useful information to aid planning and management.
The aim of the conference is to bring together health care managers, clinicians, management consultants, and mathematicians, operational researchers, statisticians, economists, computer scientists etc from across the world with a view to bridging the gap between the communities and to exploring recent developments and identifying fruitful avenues for further research.
Organising Committee
Thierry Chaussalet, University of Westminster (chair)
Rose Baker, University of Salford
Sally Brailsford, University of Southampton
Peter Millard, St George’s Hospital Medical School
Martin Pitt, Peninsula Medical School
Martin Utley, CORU, University College London
Keynote Speakers
The keynote talks will be given by health services leaders as well as prominent academics involved in health operational research. Confirmed invited speakers include:
Prof Sir Bruce Keogh (NHS Medical Director)
Patients, Providers and p-values: any significance?
Prof William Pierskella Ph.D. (UCLA Anderson School of Management, USA)
Health Care Delivery Faces Many Strategic and Tactical Problems but We Are Making Progress in Many Areas
Abstract: The U.S. and other health care systems face fundamental change over the next ten years. The bad news is: Quality gaps are everywhere. Costs are increasing at double the rates of growth of GDP in many countries. Waste is extensive. Delivery systems are outmoded. Access for many is restricted. The keys to improvement are information and decision-aiding models coupled with outcome measures and systems accountability. The good news is: Many more OR/MS persons are working on these improvements. New and excellent work is being done on health care operations management such as: hospital capacity planning, facility locations, supply chain management, ambulance scheduling and routing, analysis of organizational performance, and overcoming barriers to implementation. New and excellent work is being done on health care policy and economics such as: estimating risks to public health, modeling economic outcomes of health policies, consequences and benefits of new medications and treatments, policy analyses of the consequences of illicit drugs and addiction programs, evaluation of vaccine programs, prevention and control of infectious diseases and of the consequences of diabetes, and programs for the allocation of human organs for transplant. New and excellent work is being done on OR/MS models in clinical practice such as: use of Markov models and influence diagrams for medical treatment decisions, risk reduction in anesthesia procedures, design of optimal new treatments for asthma, Bayesian models for mammogram interpretation, models for better radiation treatment plans for cancer and models of biological processes to discover new therapies and to improve treatment protocols.
I will discuss the bad news, the good news and the pending system and operational changes and challenges facing health care delivery.
Biography: William P. Pierskalla, Ph.D., is a Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Decisions, Operations and Technology Management in the Anderson Graduate School of Management at UCLA. He is also the Ronald A. Rosenfeld Professor Emeritus, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. He was Dean of the John E. Anderson Graduate School of Management at UCLA. He holds the A.B. in Economics and M.B.A. degrees from Harvard University, an M.A. in mathematics from the University of Pittsburgh and a M.S. in statistics and a Ph.D. in operations research from Stanford University. His current interests include operations research, operations management, issues of global competition and the management and delivery aspects of health care delivery.
Dr. Pierskalla is a member of the National Academy of Engineering (USA). He was President of the International Federation of Operational Research Societies. He has been on the Editorial Advisory Boards of Encyclopedia of Operations Research & Management Science and Health Care Management Science Journal and has served on many other editorial boards. He was Vice President for Publications of the Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences. He was President of the Operations Research Society of America, and is a past Editor‑in‑Chief of Operations Research. He is the 1989 recipient of the George E. Kimball Medal for distinguished service to the Operations Research Society of America and to the field of Operations Research and the 2005 INFORMS President’s Award given to work that advances the welfare of society.
Previously he was the Deputy Dean for Academic Affairs, the Director of the Huntsman Center for Global Competition and Leadership, Executive Director of the Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics and the Chairman of the Health Care Systems Department at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Prior to his positions at Wharton, he was on the faculties of Northwestern University, Southern Methodist University and Case Institute of Technology and has worked at Westinghouse Electric Corporation. He is a current board member of the Phoenix Health Systems Corp. He was a board member of the Archibald Bush Foundation (chairman 2002-2007), the Griffin Funds, the Northern Trust Bank of California, the iRise Corporation, Northern Wilderness Adventures Inc. and the Office Tenants Network Corporation. He has consulted to many business, educational and governmental organizations. He has given numerous lectures and seminars at Universities and organizations in the North and South Americas, Europe, Australia and Asia and has refereed articles in mathematical programming, transportation, inventory and production control, maintainability and health care delivery.
For more information, please visit http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty/william.pierskalla/.
Dr David Worthington (Lancaster University Management School)
Queue Modelling and Healthcare: chalk and cheese or fish and chips?
Abstract: Healthcare systems are rife with queueing systems, some have visible queues, some have invisible queues, and some need to be managed so that queues rarely or never occur. The mathematics and operational research literature is rife with queueing models, some mathematically based and some simulation-based. Much of it is challenging and a small proportion of it is relevant to queue management in healthcare. This presentation is about the challenge of making future queue modelling work of greater relevance to healthcare. The view offered will be personal and developing, and is intended to contribute to the ongoing debate and joint concern of healthcare managers and researchers that future healthcare modelling research should be designed to have real impacts on the delivery of healthcare.
Kate Silvester BSc MBA FRCOphth (Clinical Systems Improvement)
The maths behind a hospital’s heart failure [Presentation can be downloaded below]
Abstract: Queues and waiting lists are a perennial problem for Healthcare organisations world wide. The assumption is that demand exceeds our resources so the approach is to either increase resources or ration demand. However what is the pathology in our healthcare systems that results in queues and waiting lists? There are medical analogies that we can use to explain the maths, but how do we explain the pathology to the accountants?
Biography: Kate Silvester originally trained and practised as an ophthalmologist. In 1991 she retrained as a manufacturing systems engineer and spent seven years in management consultancy transferring manufacturing principles to service industries such as banking, airlines and healthcare.
In 1999 she rejoined the UK’s National Health Service and worked on many national programmes improving the flow of patients through the system, thus addressing timeliness, cost and quality. Kate’s specific area of expertise is in the management of organisational systems to address the variability in demand and capacity. In November 2007 she joined the EU-Japan World Class Manufacturing Programme to translate the Lean Thinking approach into Healthcare. She was appointed an Honorary Associate Professor, in the Health Sciences Research Institute at Warwick Medical School in January 2009. She is currently sponsored by The Health Foundation and leads an ‘Inquiry into Flow, Cost and Quality’ with South Warwickshire Hospitals NHS Trust and Sheffield Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust.
Presentations
Rose Baker “Meta-analysis with a suspected temporal trend”
Naoru Koizumi “Using GIS and Simulation for Analyzing Optimal Organ Allocation for Liver Transplant”
Tom McBride “Use of Models to Evaluate Health Policy”
Christina Pagel “A little OR can go a long way”
Marion Penn “Developing a Multi-Methodology Operating Theatre Scheduling Support System”
Kate Silvester “The maths behind a hospital’s heart failure”
Christoph Haas “Assessing the economic risk of specified patient groups using the rough set approach”
Dave Worthington “Queue Modelling in Healthcare: Chalk & Cheese or Fish & Chips?”
Nikky Kortbeek “Integral multidisciplinary rehabilitation treatment planning”
Teresa Cardoso “Developing methods to measure the need for palliative care services, with application to the Portuguese health care system”
Honora Smith “Modelling choice of healthcare facilities”
Kieran Payne “Investigating Approaches for Efficient Fitting of Coxian Phase-Type Distributions for Healthcare Data”
Martin Hoyle “Patient switching in RCTs. Implications for cost-effectiveness analyses”
Steve Gallivan “Pure at heart: transplantation”
Special Issue Journal
Selected papers will be published in the Springer journal Health Care Management Science or the IMA Journal of Management Mathematics – note that this journal will soon be included in the Science Citation Index, and will be awarded a 2010 Impact Factor. All participants wishing to be considered for publication must submit their manuscript to R.D.Baker@salford.ac.uk by the end of MAY 2010 as an email attachment in MS Word or pdf. Indicate clearly which journal you would like your publication to be reviewed for. You should follow the instructions for authors given for the journal you are considering.
Health Care Management Science
IMA Journal of Management Mathematics
NB: After the initial submission of a file to Prof. Baker, authors will be asked to formally submit their paper to the one of the two journals. They both have electronic submission systems.
Contact
For all administrative enquiries
Conference Officer
The Institute of Mathematics and Its Applications
Catherine Richards House
16 Nelson Street
Southend-on-Sea
Essex SS1 1EF
UK
Direct Dial: +44 (0) 1702 356104
Fax: +44 (0) 1702 354111
Email: conferences@ima.org.uk
For scientific queries contact Thierry Chaussalet at: chausst@westminster.ac.uk.
Related Documents
Download Maths Behind Hospital Heart Failure Silvester [PPT]
