A talk by Robyn Goldsmith from Lancaster University.
Abstract
Across a number of sectors, after-sales services constitute a billion-dollar business. Final purchases are high stake decisions of particular importance for the aftermarket business. They are often made towards the end of the spare part life cycle and need to balance shortages and over-ordering so as to sustain demand for the rest of a part’s life. In the automotive industry, among others, this period can extend for as long as ten years.
Forecasting in order to make effective final purchase decisions is made difficult by the nature of the demand. A large majority of spare part inventories consist of items with intermittent demand structures, where in some periods no demand is observed at all. As a result, standard forecasting methods provide inaccurate forecasts for intermittent items. As final purchase decisions are frequently made to sustain demand several years into the future, modelling procedures should also be designed to include the decay in demand as time passes. Forecasting techniques that account for decline and the intermittency of demand are the subject of this seminar.
About the speaker
Robyn Goldsmith, Lancaster University: https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/stor-i-student-sites/robyn-goldsmith
Robyn is the Vice Chair and Chair-Designate of the Early Career Mathematicians committee, and the winner of the Graham Hoare Prize in 2021: https://ima.org.uk/18288/could-mathematics-be-big-at-the-box-office.
This event is hosted by our Early Career Mathematicians’ committee.
To book
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Image by Steve Buissinne from Pixabay.
