28 June 2004
by IMA

IMA Conference on Analysing Conflict and its Resolution

Date: Monday 28 - Wednesday 30 June 2004 Location: Oxford In 1997 the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications (IMA) sponsored a conference in Oxford on the modelling of international conflict. This was the second IMA conference concerned with analytical approaches to conflict, and it took place in the aftermath of war in the Balkans and as new methodologies for peace support and reconstruction began to emerge. The first conference had taken place in 1984 when the Cold War appeared to be entering a new and dangerous phase, and when the momentous events surrounding the fall of the 'iron curtain' had yet to unfold. So it is very appropriate that in 2004, at a time when many would argue that new thresholds in international conflict have been crossed, a further conference is to be held, again in Oxford, at which participants will be able to examine subsequent (and often interrelated) developments both in world security and in conflict theory. This next conference is intended as a forum both for those who have to operate directly in arenas of conflict (e.g. the military, staff of NGOs, mediators and counsellors), those whose role is to provide support or advice (e.g. defence analysts and systems contractors) and others who can offer new ways of thinking about and addressing conflict (e.g. peace and conflict researchers). Deliberately, this defines a cross-disciplinary field.

Conference Programme

Monday 28 June 2004

0930- 1430 Registration
1000- 1230 Tutorial:Confrontation Analysis A Tait  (Idea Sciences, USA)
1300- 1400 Lunch
Role of Analysis
1400- 1445 Invited speaker: Role for Mathematics in Forecasting Decisions in Real Conflicts? K Green (www.conflictforecasting.com)
1445- 1515 Confrontational Analysis: Prediction, Interpretation or Diagnosis? (pdf) P Bennett (Department of Health)
1515- 1545 Analytical Support to Policy Makers in a Messy World S Lea (Dstl)
1545- 1615 Tea
1615- 1645 Operational Analysis in Support of Recent Military Operations G Rose (Dstl)
1645- 1730 Invited speaker: Measuring and Assessing International Conflicts and Their Consequences Michael Clarke (University of London)
1730- 1800 Posters Seminar Room
1900- Dinner

Tuesday 29 June 2004

0900- 0945 Invited speaker: A Minimax Procedure for Negotiating Multilateral Treaties Steve J Brams (Co-Authors Marc Kilgour and M Remzi Sanver)
Strategic Interaction
Social choice
Lecture theatre Seminar Room
0945- 1015 Conflict Resolution and Conflict Prevention H Goldwood and C Goodman A poison chalice?: Negotiating with extremists (pdf) D Goodwin (Royal Military Academy)
1015- 1045 Estimating Force Requirements for Crisis Repsonse Operations (pdf) R K Huber and S Schafer (Uni. of the Federal Armed Forces) Modelling conflict: social choice theory and social welfare theory (pdf) G Burt (Open University)
1045- 1115 Coffee
Simulation/Experimentation
Civil Measures
Lecture Theatre Seminar Room
1115- 1145 Analysing the Impact of Command Intent upon the Evolution of Operation R Wilson (Dstl) Tales of the Unexpected: When Do Economic Sanctions Work? J Hovi and R Huseby (Uni. of Oslo)
1145- 1215 Historical Analysis for the Realistic Representation of Time in Combat Simulations (pdf) D Tilley, D Rowland and P Pearce (Dstl) Win-win Democratic Structures P Emerson (The de Borda Institute)
1215- 1245 Non-instrumental Behavior in an Experimental Public Goods Game L Helland and J Hovi (Norwegian School of Management) The Role of the Electoral System in the Resolution of Ethnic Conflict (pdf) D Chapman (Democracy Design Forum)
1300- 1400 Lunch
1400- 1445 Invited speaker: International Security After 9/11 P Rogers (Dept of Peace Studies, University of Bradford)
The International Scene
Analytical Developments
Lecture Theatre Seminar Room
1445- 1515 Drama theory as the behavioural rationale in agent-based models (pdf) J W Bryant (Sheffield Hallam University) A Case of Confrontation: Insights from MCDA and Conflict Analysis F Losa (Ufficio di statistica)
1515- 1545 Contingent, Time-Dependent Conflict Resolution: Drama Theory in the Extensive Form N Howard (dramatec)
1545- 1615 Tea
1615- 1645 Multivariate Time Series Approaches To Analysing The Northern Irish Conflict: Lessons For Future Sub-State Conflict Control S Wright and D Webb (Leeds Metropolitan University)
1645- 1715 Historical Analysis for the Realistic Representation of Time in Combat Simulations A Morley (Dstl) Optimal Enforcement and Adequate Penalties Marc Kilgour (Wilfrid Laurier Uni)
1715- 1800 Invited speaker: Is World Multipolarity a Political Myth? V A Svetlov (Petersburg State Transport University)
1930- 2000 Reception: The Randolph Hotel, Oxford
2000- Dinner: The Randolph Hotel, Oxford Sponsored by Dstl. After dinner speaker General Sir Rupert Smith Former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe. Considered the consummate "soldier's soldier", he served in Northern Ireland as the General Officer Commanding from 1996-98, during a period that spanned ceasefire, peace negotiations and the Good Friday agreement. He is now actively engaged in the field of conflict research.

Wednesday 30 June 2004

Military Networks
0900-0930 Quantifying the Benefit of Shared Information (pdf) T S Gardener and J Moffat (Dstl)
1000-1030 Analysis of Command and Control in Network Enabled Operations (pdf) G Enemo (Norwegian Defence Research Establishment)
1030-1100 Coffee
Non-state Actors
1100-1130 Kosovo Refugees on the Macedonian Border: Escaping a Prisoners’ Dilemma (Presentation) L Zeager and J H P Williams (East Carolina University)
1130-1200 Female Suicide Bombers, The Literary Turn and Chechnya C Moore (Nottingham Trent University)
1200-1230 Atmospheric dispersion modelling in support of civil emergency operations  (Presentation) R D Kingdon (Dstl)
Shared Understanding
1230-1300 Emergent Co-Operation Over Common Pool Relations H Miall (Lancaster University)
1300-1400 Lunch
1400-1430 Critical Memory Work and Conflict Transformation in Bosnia-Herzegovina R Kelly (University of Bradford)
1430-1500 Closing discussion J Bryant (Chair)
 

Speakers

Bennett, Peter Operational Research (EOR) Dept of Health Skipton House 80 London Road London SE1 6LH UK
Brams, Steve New York University USA http://www.nyu.edu/
Bryant, Jim Sheffield Hallam University & Warwick Business School UK
Burt, Gordon The Mathematical Social Science Programme Institute of Educational Technology Open University UK
Chapman, David Democracy Design Forum Suffolk UK
Clarke, Michael University of London UK
Emerson, P J The de Borda Institute Belfast UK
Enemo, Geir FFI (The Norwegian Defence Research Establishment) Kjeller Norway
Gardener, Tim Dstl Farnborough Hants GU14 0LX UK www.dstl.gov.uk
Goodman, C
Goodwin, Deborah Senior Lecturer Royal Military Academy Sandhurst UK
Goldwood, H
Green, Kesten Victoria University of Wellington New Zealand www.conflictforecasting.com
Helland, Leif Norwegian School of Management (BI) Box 580, 1302 Sandvika, Norway [email protected]
Hovi, Jon CICERO and Department of Political Science Box 1097 Blindern, 0317 Oslo, Norway [email protected]
Howard, Nigel dramatec 12 Chesham Road Kemp Town Brighton BN2 1NB UK [email protected] Tel.: +44 (0) 1273 674586
Huber, R K Uni. of the Federal Armed Forces
Huseby, Robert Robert Huseby Department of Political Science Box 1097 Blindern, 0317 Oslo, Norway [email protected]
Kelly, R University of Bradford UK
Kilgour, Marc Wilfrid Laurier Uni, Canada
Kingdon, R D Dstl UK www.dstl.gov.uk
Lea, Steve Dstl UK www.dstl.gov.uk
Losa, F Ufficio di statistica
Miall, Hugh Lancaster University UK
Moffat, Jim Dstl Farnborough Hants GU14 0LX UK www.dstl.gov.uk
Moore, C Nottingham Trent University UK
Morley, A Dstl UK www.dstl.gov.uk
Pearce, P Land Systems Department Dstl Fort Halstead Kent UK www.dstl.gov.uk
Rogers, Paul Dept of Peace Studies University of Bradford UK
Rose, George Group Leader Support to Operations Policy and Capability Department Dstl Farnborough Hants GU14 0LX UK www.dstl.gov.uk
Rowland, D Newman & Spurr Consultancy Camberley Surrey UK
Sanver, M Remzi
Schafer, S Uni. of the Federal Armed Forces
Smith, General Sir Rupert
Svetlov, Victor Petersburg State Transport University St. Petersburg Russia
Tait, Andrew Idea Sciences 205 The Strand Alexandria VA 22314-3319 USA www.ideasciences.com Tel.: +1 (703) 299-3480
Tilley, D Policy & Capability Studies Department Dstl Farnborough Hants UK www.dstl.gov.uk
Webb, Dave The Praxis Centre Leeds Metropolitan University Leeds UK
Williams, John Department of Political Science East Carolina University Brewster A-120 Greenville, NC 27858 USA [email protected]
Wilson, R Dstl UK www.dstl.gov.uk
Wright, Steve The Praxis Centre Leeds Metropolitan University Leeds UK
Young, Mike CORDA UK
Zeager, Lester Department of Economics East Carolina University Brewster A-434 Greenville, NC 27858 USA [email protected]
 

Presentations

A Minimax Procedure for Negotiating Multilateral Treaties Steve J Brams (Co-Authors Marc Kilgour and M Remzi Sanver) New York University, USA Marc Kilgour Wilfrid Laurier Uni, Canada M Remzi Sanver Modelling conflict: social choice theory and social welfare theory Gordon Burt The Mathematical Social Science Programme, Institute of Educational Technology, Open University, UK Analysis of Command and Control (C2) in Network Enabled Operations (NEO) Geir Enemo FFI (The Norwegian Defence Research Establishment), Kjeller, Norway Quantifying the Benefit of Shared Information Tim Gardener, Jim Moffat Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, Farnborough, UK Historical Analysis for the Realistic Representation of Time in Combat Simulations D Tilley Policy & Capability Studies Department, Dstl, Farnborough, Hants, UK D Rowland Newman & Spurr Consultancy, Camberley, Surrey, UK P Pearce Land Systems Department, Dstl, Fort Halstead, Kent, UK Kosovo Refugees on the Macedonian Border: Escaping a Prisoners’ Dilemma John H P Williams Department of Political Science, East Carolina University, Brewster A-120, Greenville, NC 27858, USA Lester A Zeager Department of Economics, East Carolina University, Brewster A-434, Greenville, NC 27858, USA Love, Hate and Power Mike Young CORDA, UK

Papers

Confrontational Analysis: Prediction, Interpretation or Diagnosis? Peter Bennett Operational Research (EOR), Dept of Health, Skipton House, 80 London Road, LONDON SE1 6LH, UK* Drama theory as the behavioural rationale in agent-based models Jim Bryant Sheffield Hallam University & Warwick Business School, UK Estimating force requirements for crisis response Sebastian Schäfer and Reiner K. Huber Institute for Applied Systems Science and Operations Research, University of the Federal Armed Forces Munich, Germany Modelling conflict: social choice theory and social welfare theory Gordon Burt The Mathematical Social Science Programme, Institute of Educational Technology, Open University, UK The Role of the Electoral System in the Resolution of Ethnic Conflict David Chapman Democracy Design Forum, Suffolk, UK Win-win Democratic Structures P. J. Emerson The de Borda Institute, Belfast Analysis of Command and Control (C2) in Network Enabled Operations (NEO) Geir Enemo FFI (The Norwegian Defence Research Establishment), Kjeller, Norway Quantifying the Benefit of Shared Information Tim Gardener, Jim Moffat Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, Farnborough, UK A poison chalice?: Negotiating with extremists Deborah Goodwin Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, UK Non-instrumental Behavior in an Experimental Public Goods Game Leif Helland Norwegian School of Management (BI), Box 580, 1302 Sandvika, Norway Jon Hovi CICERO and Department of Political Science, Box 1097, Blindern, 0317 Oslo, Norway Tales of the Unexpected: When Do Economic Sanctions Work? Jon Hovi CICERO and Department of Political Science, Box 1097, Blindern, 0317 Oslo, Norway Robert Huseby Department of Political Science, Box 1097 Blindern, 0317 Oslo, Norway Resolving Conflicts in a Tree: Drama Theory in the Extensive Form Nigel Howard dramatec, 12 Chesham Road, Kemp Town, Brighton BN2 1NB, UK Historical Analysis of Conflict Termination (pdf) Alistair Morley (Policy & Capability Studies Department, Defence Science & Technology Laboratory, Farnborough, Hants, UK) Operational Analysis in Support of Recent Military Operations George Rose Policy and Capability Department, Dstl, Farnborough, Hants GU14 0LX, UK Is multipolarity a political myth? Towards a formal theory of polarization of the world system Victor A Svetlov Petersburg State Transport University, St. Petersburg, Russia Historical Analysis for the Realistic Representation of Time in Combat Simulations D Tilley Policy & Capability Studies Department, Dstl, Farnborough, Hants, UK D Rowland Newman & Spurr Consultancy, Camberley, Surrey, UK P Pearce Land Systems Department, Dstl, Fort Halstead, Kent, UK Kosovo Refugees on the Macedonian Border: Escaping a Prisoners’ Dilemma John H P Williams Department of Political Science, East Carolina University, Brewster A-120, Greenville, NC 27858, USA Lester A Zeager Department of Economics, East Carolina University, Brewster A-434, Greenville, NC 27858, USA Multivariate Time Series Approaches To Analysing The Northern Irish Conflict: Lessons For Future Sub-State Conflict Control Steve Wright, Dave Webb The Praxis Centre, Leeds Metropolitan University, Leeds, UK